The PaP 11th-hour mock draft

April 25, 2009

It will no doubt be apparent to all our regular readers that we at PaP have yet to produce a mock draft for the 2009 NFL draft, which takes place today at 8:30pm GMT (3.30pm ET). This fact is largely because we hate being wrong, and with today’s news that Matt Stafford will indeed be the first overall pick in the draft, our chances of being right have skyrocketed. Thus, we have decided to chuck in our two cents at the 11th-hour in the hope that we’re right. If we aren’t, our retractions can be swift and brutal. So, without further ado, here’s the PaP mock draft for 2009.

With the first overall pick, the Detroit Lions select Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: This is a total lock and something we know will happen. Write it down folks, Stafford to the Lions.

With the second overall pick, the St. Louis Rams select Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: This pick makes total sense for the Rams. Alex Barron isn’t the answer at left tackle and with no Orlando Pace, Smith is his heir apparent.

With the third overall pick, the Kansas City Chiefs select Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: The Chiefs do need help on the defensive front, but this is too high for Tyson Jackson (DE, LSU) – who they wouldn’t mind trading down for – and Aaron Curry has never played in the 3-4 defense before. Pair Monroe with last year’s first-rounder Branden Albert and the Chiefs can begin to repair their once-proud O-line.

With the fourth overall pick, the Seattle Seahawks select Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: Lots of people have the ‘Hawks taking Mark Sanchez (QB, USC), but I can’t see them tying up that much money at one position with Sanchez and Hasselbeck. My guess? The Chiefs started all the chatter about Seattle taking Sanchez so they could trade down. Curry makes this linebacking corps one of the best in the league.

With the fifth overall pick, the Cleveland Browns select Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas: The Browns are in dire need of a pass rusher and Orakpo is the best in the draft. B.J. Raji (DT, Boston College) makes some sense but they already have Shaun Rogers and again, they won’t want to tie up that much money at one position.

With the sixth overall pick, the Cincinnati Bengals select Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Michael Crabtree (WR, Texas Tech) could be the pick here if Chad Ochocinco is traded, but as it stands, the Bengals need to get a running game and protect Carson Palmer. Were it not for off-the-field stuff, A.Smith would be the first tackle taken.

With the seventh overall pick, the Oakland Raiders select Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: The Raiders do actually need a wideout but instead of taking the far superior Crabtree, Al Davis will insist (as always) on clocked speed. Heyward-Bey ran the fastest 40 at the combine, and he’s the pick due to Davis’ quite frankly mental draft strategy.

With the eighth overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: If Crabtree is sitting there at eight, the Jags need to pick him. They have no legit offensive weapons apart from MoJo Drew, and Crabtree could be elite.

With the ninth overall pick, the Green Bay Packers select B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: The Pack were horrible against the run in ‘08 and they’re changing to the 3-4 defense. Raji is the only quality nose tackle available, and Green Bay would love him to be there.

With the tenth overall selection, the San Francisco 49ers select Mark Sanchez, QB, USC: If Sanchez slips to ten, the 9ers will jump on him at speed. If someone jumps up to select Sanchez, they’ll look offensive tackle instead.

With the 11th overall selection, the Buffalo Bills select Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss: After trading Jason Peters to Philly, the Bills need a proper left tackle to replace him, and Oher is the last left tackle left in the draft. The pick makes itself.

With the 12th overall selection, the Denver Broncos select Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: The Broncos have been awful against the run for some time, and the front seven figures to be their focus if they don’t trade up for Sanchez. Jackson is the only true 3-4 defensive end in the draft, and the Broncs would leap at the chance to get him.

With the 13th overall selection, the Washington Redskins select Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: After the mammoth acquisition of Albert Haynesworth, the ‘Skins need outside pass-rush help badly, and Ayers is the best DE available. Be warned ‘Skins fans, Snyder wants Mark Sanchez <gulp>.

With the 14th overall selection, the New Orleans Saints select Malcolm Jenkins, CB/S, Ohio State: The Saints’ pass D has been diabolical for years now, and Jenkins gives them the upgrade they so desperately need.

With the 15th overall selection, the Houston Texans select Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: A bit of a surprise here, but if Maclin slips down to Houston, the thought of pairing him with Andre Johnson may be too tempting to pass up.

With the 16th overall selection, the San Diego Chargers select Rey Maualuga, LB, USC: The Bolts need middle linebacker help to take the heat off of Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips on the edges. Maualuga is a thumper who will remind them of Junior Seau.

With the 17th overall selection, the New York Jets select Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State: The J-E-T-S are in dire need of a future at QB, and Freeman is the last first-round signal-caller left on the board.

With the 18th overall selection, the Denver Broncos select Brian Cushing, LB, USC: After taking Jackson, Denver continues to rebuild its front seven with the athletic Cushing. Between the two of them, they should better the Broncos’ run D.

With the 19th overall selection, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss: The Bucs probably want Freeman, but if he’s gone then Jerry gives them a disruptive interior force they’ve lacked since Warren Sapp left.

With the 20th overall selection, the Detroit Lions select Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT, Missouri: This is a bit of reach, but since they traded Cory Redding to Seattle, Detroit needs a defensive tackle. Hood is the last good one available.

With the 21st overall selection, the Philadelphia Eagles select Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: Personally, I think the Eagles should draft a receiver here like Percy Harvin (Florida), but it seems increasingly likely that Moreno is the pick. He’s super-quick and should be a nice compliment to Brian Westbrook.

With the 22nd overall selection, the Minnesota Vikings select Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: Harvin has had some off-the -field issues, but his gamebreaking ability can’t be overlooked. He’ll take the pressure off of Adrian Peterson and help the passing and return games.

With the 23rd overall seleciton, the New England Patriots select Clay Matthews, LB, USC: Matthews is a high-character, high-motor linebacker who can help Jerod Mayo galvanize what was an aging positional group.

With the 24th overall seleciton, the Atlanta Falcons select Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn. State: The Falcons lost Keith Brooking and Michael Boley in the offseason, and can use Maybin to rush the passer from multiple spots, including the now-depleted outside linebacker position.

With the 25th overall seleciton, the Miami Dolphins select Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers: The Fins need a complimenting receiver to the speedy Ted Ginn who is now starting to emerge as a wideout. Britt is tall, strong and unafraid to make the tough catches in traffic.

With the 26th overall seletion, the Baltimore Ravens select Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Davis is another huge talent with off-the-field questions. The Ravens’ pass D broke down for much of last season, and they lost Corey Ivy in free agency. Davis is a great athlete who will instantly contribute in the nickel and dime packages.

With the 27th overall selection, the Indianapolis Colts select Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State: With all the top receivers gone, the Colts look elsewhere on offense. Joseph Addai had a bad year in ‘08, and Wells is a bruising back who can compliment and help Addai’s production.

With the 28th overall selection, the Buffalo Bills select Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: If the Falcons hadn’t traded for Tony Gonzalez they would have picked this guy but instead the Bills get the best TE in the draft whose size and speed combination could be deadly at the NFL level.

With the 29th overall selection, the New York Giants select Hakeem Nicks, WR, N.C. State: Since Plaxico Burress is no longer with the team, the G-men need a big target for Eli Manning. Nicks has got some of the best hands in the draft and has the frame to go up and grab the 50/50 jump balls.

With the 30th overall selection, the Tennessee Titans select Darius Butler, CB, UConn: The T’s need a wideout but it’s not their style to draft one in the first round. They need D-line rotational help too, but there’s not much left. Thus cornerback becomes the new priority. Butler is an athlete who will eventually replace Nick Harper.

With the 31st overall selection, the Arizona Cardinals select Donald Brown, RB, UConn: The Cards need to be able to run the ball better, and Edgerrin James is too old to be the answer here. Brown is an every-down back who can carry the load.

With the 32nd overall selection, the Pittsburgh Steelers select William Beatty, OT, UConn: Beatty becomes the third UConn player off the board in a row, and gives the Steel City help at tackle, where they just lost Marvel Smith.

So there it is, the PaP 11-th hour mock draft. Enjoy!


The NFL Democratic People’s Republic (Plc)

April 13, 2009

Every year at about this time I end up in conversations with mildly confused people who are fans of the NFL but not familiar with its business model. As coverage and discussion of the upcoming NFL Draft ramps up, onlookers notice that it appears to be a pretty left wing idea (like revenue sharing and the salary cap), and they wonder how such a socialist enterprise can be the most popular sport in the Land of the Free. Look a little further, however, and this apparent socialism is only skin deep.

Fans of other sports are used to teams being separate and competing interests, focused completely on their own (short term) needs. In most sports, cooperation between franchises is rare – the formation of the Premier League in English soccer being the exception that proves the rule. The NFL works differently, with all 32 owners working together and accepting individual sacrifices like revenue sharing – but why?

lenin

Lenin - not a fan

It’s all about perspective – the owners (and the league Commissioner as their advocate) accepted long ago that their true competitors aren’t each other, but rather other sports and different forms of entertainment. Pat Bowlen and Robert Kraft might be competitors for a week when the Broncos play the Colts, but the real threat to their teams and profits would be casual NFL fans deciding the league was getting a bit dull and putting their money into watching tennis.

The franchises therefore don’t behave like competing companies who’ll claw each others’ eyes every chance they get, but more like rival sales teams working in the same office – who all get paid out of the same company bonus pool.

This is a pretty farsighted bit of thinking, but that’s how they all ended up being squillionaires in the first place.

The owners believe that making the NFL a larger and more profitable place to be is the best way to grow their own piece of the pie. Each of the league’s supposedly collectivist elements therefore actually serves a highly capitalist purpose, which is to help protect and grow the overall company – NFL Inc.

The Draft

Roll up to see some old guys read out names

Roll up to see some old guys read out names

On the surface, the NFL Draft is a model of egalitarianism. Young players looking to enter the league from the college system have to go through the draft, and the 32 teams start off with the same number of choices, taking turns to pick in order from the worst team to the best. The idea behind this is that if you’re the league’s worst team one year – this year it’s the Detroit Lions – then you’re able to pick the best player in each round and get better quickly, while the year’s best team – Pittsburgh – are handicapped and can’t sit on their laurels.

In reality, of course, the Draft is a capitalist masterstroke. By creating a high profile media circus out of an activity which is common to all sports – selecting rookies – the league manages to create drama in an otherwise mundane offseason, keeping fans’ interest away from other temptations like college basketball or writing poetry. Needless to say the broadcast rights and advertising around the draft generate revenue, but draft picks are also a sort of currency within the NFL’s internal marketplace, traded between teams in exchange for other picks, players or even coaches – hardly a victory for the proletariat.

Revenue sharing

You give us your money, we give it to other people

You give us your money, we give it to other people

Perhaps the league’s most startling bit of pseudo-socialism is the mechanism by which all of its 32 teams share their profits, including gate receipts at games, merchandise income and – crucially – the megabucks from the league’s various television deals. These deals are amongst the richest in the world – from 2008-2013 NFL broadcast rights will raise around 24 billion dollars – and every team receives an identical slice.

This seems like socialism run amuck, until you once again take a look from the perspective of NFL vs NBA/NHL/Olympics rather than Buccaneers vs Eagles – the league’s priority here is not who wins, but providing top quality entertainment for fans every time they watch an NFL game. Making lucrative franchises like Dallas share some of their profits with threadbare outfits like Jacksonville ensures that all teams can afford to put out a quality product, and fans don’t have to suffer a hit and miss league.

The salary cap

The salary cap is a huge, complex and highly engineered beast, but it comes down to a very simple idea: compared to those of its competitors, NFL games are extremely unpredictable – this is exciting to watch, it’s  attractive to spectators, and therefore it’s profitable for owners.

Pro football is the most watched sport in the US because it has surprising moments, games and seasons – on any given sunday, anything can happen. The owners want to keep this level of unpredictability in the game, and believe that the best way to do so is by having “parity” – i.e. not too big a spread between the performance of the best and worst teams.

The Draft has helped drive this, but it’s achieved mostly by the imposition of a salary cap to restrict what each team can spend on players each year. Football is first and foremost a team game, and having a few superstars surrounded by nobodies rarely leads to success, so the cap forces franchises to seek out value for money if they want to be successful. (Not that everyone understands this) This means there aren’t any Manchester United or Chelsea types in the NFL, who have bought trophies by signing a bunch of high priced megastars.

Hands up for home team discounts

Hands up for home team discounts

The salary cap has an additional benefit, because it naturally breaks down good teams. As a franchise is successful and its players become stars, the team finds it difficult if not impossible to keep them all as their costs rise. One or two can persuade players that being on a winning side is more important than being paid market value – which is why Tom Brady is among the most underpaid players in sports – but for most, success on the field is followed by an exodus of players for more rewarding pastures, and a period of rebuilding.

Bluntly put, this works. 14 different teams have made it to the Superbowl since the year 2000, with only 4 able to appear more than once. Teams that are hopeless one year can be top tier the next – the Miami Dolphins only won one game in 2007, but won their division and entered the playoffs in 2008.

Red menace

The NFL’s success has not just happened. The owners have worked together to build a league and a strategy that take precedence over individual teams, and taken some extraordinary measures to ensure its future. As the league seeks to expand into new markets overseas, it will need every ounce of that business sense to take on some pretty impressive competitors – like soccer – while not diluting the high quality product that has enabled it to succeed so far.

The owners, and their counterparts in the players’ union, also have to find a way to overcome the looming threat of a year without an underpinning Collective Bargaining Agreement – the legal basis which makes the salary cap work. If the league’s delicate financial balance gets disturbed both players and management may regret messing with a successful formula.

The NFL is riding high in both ratings and cash, and the bond markets can’t get enough of its future financial prospects, proving that the one-for-all approach is not only building a bigger future pie, but providing the sort of stable and dependable revenue the markets love. Football is reaping big benefits from the league’s big picture approach – it may look like socialism, but it smells like a winning capitalist strategy.


Cutlergate: One week on

April 9, 2009

After the incredibly well-publicized and bitchy fallout between Jay Cutler and the Denver Broncos organization, all ties were cut as Cutler was dealt to the Bears (specifics here) late last week. The dust has settled (as much as it probably can) on this colossal trade, so who really got the best of the deal? The Broncos? Josh McDaniels? Da Bears? Cutler himself? We aim to find out who really won this fiscal/emotional/personal battle royale.

PJ and Duncan say it best:

In the Mile High corner, wearing the equine trunks, the Denver Broncos.

So too must you become, DERELICTE!

"So too must you become, DERELICTE!"

On the plus side of things, the Broncos have managed to deal a player who was causing a media shitstorm and disrupting locker room harmony. However, they’ve also now gotten rid of the first top-flight quarterback they’ve had since John Elway retired. Owner Pat Bowlen (much to his credit) didn’t flip-flop on his support of new head coach Josh McDaniels, and at no point blinked in this particular staring contest. Cutler is a fantastic player, sure, but in his mind anyone who undermines the coaching staff has to go, regardless of who they are. In addition, they got a viable starting QB in Kyle Orton (who’s not only won more games than he’s lost in his career but sported a triumphantly derelicte beard for most of last season) and Da Bears’ first-round picks in ‘09 and ‘10.

But at the end of the day, no matter how much Denver received in return, they have still traded away one of the best young QBs in the league who’s coming off a Pro Bowl season. Franchise quarterbacks are very rare, and although Orton is solid, Cutler has the potential to be superb. Therefore, you lose.

Verdict: forced to tap out by Jay Cutler and George Halas’ ghost.

In the windy corner, wearing the hopeful trunks, the Chicago Bears.

Chicago has got every right to be pleased with themselves. After quite literally decades of having average quarterbacking, the Bears have finally acquired an elite signal-caller. Cutler is young, enthusiastic and used to adverse weather conditions, so he’ll be a fan favourite instantly in the Windy City. The downside for Bears nation has to be the hefty price they paid. They’ve got big needs at wide receiver and offensive tackle (Orlando Pace is a short-term solution) and since they now won’t have a first-round pick until 2011, they better have a plan to sort out those positions some other way. Cutler is good, but no-one can be successful when they’re on their back/having their passes dropped. They can’t be the ultimate winners, but they’ve still done more good than bad to the organisation with this trade.

Verdict: TKO by the Denver Broncos. Weapon used: 2 first-round picks.

In the increasingly nervous corner, wearing the slightly brown trunks, Josh McDaniels.

McDaniels: trying to trade for Tyler Thigpen?

McDaniels: trying to trade for Tyler Thigpen?

We at PaP do not like to pull punches, so it’s fair to say that describing Josh McDaniels’ first offseason as Broncos head coach as ‘less than stellar’ would be like calling Peter King ‘a mild fan of Brett Favre’. The rookie head coach came in with plenty of ideas and promises (including saying how excited he was to work with Jay Cuter – ouch), but in trying to acquire Matt Cassel he made a very rookie mistake. Rather than be honest about the situation, McDaniels used back channels to try and execute the trade, but instead word got out and the situation spiraled out of control. Fast.

Cutler may be gone, but now some of his more veteran players may well be questioning his decision-making and trustworthiness, and despite Pat Bowlen’s overt support, his chair must be feeling mighty hot right now, as the media is already speculating how long he’ll last. McDaniels is the undeniable loser of this fight, and he’ll have to work hard and win a lot of games to get the monkey off his back.

Verdict: pinned by Jay Cutler, the sports media and every 10-year-old Bronco fan in Colorado.

In the smug corner, wearing the Chicago Bears uniform, Jay Cutler.

Scrooge McDuck = Jay Cutler?

Scrooge McDuck = Jay Cutler?

There can be little doubt that Jay Cutler has managed to come out of this debacle with the most intact. Sure, his rep has taken a knock with some journalists and a few Broncos fans, but he gave Denver a heckuva lot of production and can always claim he was treated badly given what he did for the team. He still has more than a few supporters in the Mile High City, but now is the toast of Chicago and has the undying support of an entire city. Add to that the fact he’s a childhood Bears fan and the situation suits him well. The only negative for Cutler is that he has far fewer weapons that he did in Denver, but expect Chicago to do as much as possible to surround their new saviour with talent.

Verdict: Outright winner, seen lying in a pool of money in the Chicago area, laughing.