A League of Nations?

March 30, 2009

NFL owners’ ruminations over extending the length of the (meaningful) football season again focus the spotlight on the league’s efforts to grow from a national sport into a global brand. Over the last decade pro football has become the most popular and profitable sport in the US, but the ever-sharp cartel of team owners believe that the NFL is rapidly reaching saturation point in its domestic market, and further growth is going to have to come from overseas.

The latest development is NFL commissioner Steve Goodell’s charge towards an 18-game regular season with a portion of games played at “neutral sites”. This builds on recent moves including the announcement that the Bills will play one home game per season in Toronto, and the successful International Series which is staging an game in London every year until 2010. The particularly observant will also remember a 2005 regular season game played in Mexico City, and ongoing scuttlebutt (fed by the league) about the possibility of holding a Super Bowl in a foreign city.

The NFL clearly doesnt understand marketing

The NFL clearly doesn't understand marketing

In reality, holding these isolated games abroad is a pain in the arse for the league. It’s expensive and unfamiliar, some of the players get confused about what language is spoken in England, and the home team’s usual locale is deprived of cash and profile. Goodell’s drive to try and hold more each year is therefore a sign that the owners are pretty serious about reaching into new markets, and are willing to stomach some inconvenience in order to show a bit of leg to overseas fans and press.

You can see why they’re putting in so much effort – lest we forget, this year half a million people signed up to get tickets for the third London game. The 2005 game in Mexico, between the then-unappealing Cardinals and always unappealing 49ers, drew the highest ever attendance for a regular season game. Japan (where Major League Baseball landed a TV deal worth $235m a year) is on the wish list for additional future games, as is Germany – where even the substandard NFL Europe was popular.

Mike! Good news! Youre the only NFL analyst outside North America!

"Mike! Good news! You're the only NFL analyst outside North America!"

So far the league has put its toe in the water, and the owners (who didn’t get to be squillionaires by jumping in without looking) will probably continue testing the global market for a while yet. They’ll want to see whether substantial, non novelty, interest is sustained against incumbent national sports, and whether the pitfalls of previous efforts like NFL Europe and the World League can be avoided.

Based on form so far, though, the export of authentic, meaningful NFL games seems to be attracting audiences, leading NFL execs to start speculating off the record about overseas franchises. A game between the London Punks and the Vancouver Stand Up Comedians may seem a long way off right now, but in recent years this initiative has already developed far and fast. PaP wouldn’t count against the world’s savviest sport taking some big leaps in the short term to build a more profitable future.

1 Comment | NFL Inc, NFL International | Tagged: , | Permalink
Posted by redemigre

Extension of the regular season: Pros and cons

March 26, 2009

As the NFL Annual Meeting came to an end earlier this week, the main story coming out of it (aside from some small rule changes) was the possibility of extending the NFL regular season from its current 16-game schedule to a 17- or 18-game season. This change, it was proposed, would be made by mortgaging 1 or 2 preseason matchups and replacing them with regular season games.

Goodell: total genius or more short-sighted than your gran?

Goodell: total genius or more short-sighted than your gran?

Now obviously this comes as freakin’ awesome news to a lot of NFL fans because it means a) there’s more ‘real’ football to watch and b) we don’t have to tell ourselves watching Jim Sorgi take snaps is entertaining just because it’s football. However, there are some issues raised by this proposal and we at PaP (ever the topical fiends) have thought (quite) long and (fairly) hard to conjure up the pros and cons of extra regular-season NFL matches. So, without further ado, here’s 2 of each.

The Pros

More ‘real football’ to watch: In the minds of most NFL fans, the regular season is too short at 16 games, especially when compared to sports like basketball (82 games), baseball (a ridiculous 162 games) and even the domestic Premiership soccer season in the UK (38 games). The expansion of the regular season means a longer football season as a whole, as the Super and Pro Bowls would be moved back into February and thus elongate a schedule which currently lasts only 5 months. In addition, the removal of preseason games means less dull-as-drying-paint matches with innumerable backups (who’ll probably get cut) messing things up in the 2nd halves of games nationwide.

Kitna: God wants a developmental league.

Kitna: "God wants a developmental league."

The possibility of a new developmental league: Now this is a less obvious bonus, and not quite as exciting, but the limitation of the preseason to just 2, maybe 3 games means that there will be less scope for player development before the regular season starts. The lack of opportunities for young players in the preseason will mean they need another place to ply their trade, which could well lead to the revivial of a developmental league a la NFL Europe. Now, no-one’s saying that NFL Europe was incredibly entertaining, but its merits were obvious as it produced players like Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme and, erm, Jon Kitna.

Joking aside, quite a few current NFL players came through the Europe ranks and I’m sure many undrafted free agents and vets alike would welcome the chance to play proper football. Both the NBA and MLB have official developmental leagues (the D-League and minor leagues respectively), so why shouldn’t America’s most profitable (and best) sport? Also, as we all know, the NFL off-season is really long, painfully so at times, and at least having a developmental league to watch would take away some of the misery of the long football drought during the insufferably dull post-draft months.

The Cons

Pennington: More games? More Comeback Player of the Year awards for me.

Pennington: "More games? More Comeback Player of the Year awards for me".

Player health: This is the main sticking point with the proposal, and one that no doubt the NFLPA’s new director will raise. There are probably more injuries in one NFL season than in a single year in any other sport, and more regular season games means more of them. I’m sure guys like Gale Sayers or Terrell Davis whose careers prematurely ended because of injury will tell you: it’s a tough sport to play, and it’s almost impossible to last a whole season without getting injured. Just last year, there were hundreds of players on IR, and that number will only increase with more games. Having extra games is great, but would it mortgage quality for quantity, or having worse playoffs because of seriously banged-up rosters? The games that really count need to be good ones, not just a case of who has the healthier squad.

Devaluation of extra games?: Although the addition of 2 more regular season games would be welcomed by many, surely the more games there are, the less important each becomes? The preseason may be shorter, but many fans hate the end-of-season matchups where teams are resting all their starters for the playoffs just as much. If teams are able to clinch playoff berths, surely there will only be more of these games to watch as the regular season winds down?

In addition, we may see the end of some games become a whole lot suckier, as clubs give in to a loss and think ‘we’ll win next week and it won’t matter’. 4th-quarter comebacks could become extinct as some franchises pull their stars when a loss is inevitable. The Broncos, Chargers and Panthers (to name but 3) all had riveting comebacks in ‘08, but with the new expanded season, would we see the likes of Cutler, Rivers or Delhomme on the field to throw the winning pass in a regular-season environment? The danger is that by adding games, teams will be more willing to pull starters in the final quarter, which is what happens in preseason games anyway. It could mean that there’s a watering-down of current NFL standards as each game becomes less valuable.

Either way, the concept is at the very least interesting and even if agreed upon, we won’t see the results until the 2010 season at the earliest. NFL purists, you may now exhale.

2 Comments | Offseason | Tagged: , , | Permalink
Posted by distantblues

Rebuilding or rebounding?

March 25, 2009

Last season, there were a number of spectacular and surprising franchise turnarounds: the Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons all rebounded from horrible ‘07 seasons to make the playoffs in 2008. Three clubs with more than 10 losses each the previous season all posted double-digit win totals this year, in large part thanks to adding new coaches – messrs. Sparano, Harbaugh and Smith respectively. Given that this offseason has yielded a shedload of changes from coaches, to executives, to GMs to players themselves, have any of the worst teams of ‘08 done enough to ‘pull a Miami’? We’re going to look at the 5 worst franchises (in terms of their ‘08 win-loss record) and see which (if any) have a chance to surprise us all this year.

Bobby Layne: enemy of Lions fans worldwide.

Bobby Layne: enemy of Lions fans worldwide.

Detroit Lions: 0-16

After having the worst record in NFL history last year, Detroit is looking to restore the roar by totally overhauling their staff. Matt ‘draft genius‘ Millen is (finally) out, and ex-Titans defensive co-ordinator Jim Schwartz replaced Rod Marinelli as the head coach. The Lions are also changing their uniforms in a hope to change the culture of losing which has produced a stagerringly shitty 1 playoff win in over 50 seasons (for which they have Bobby Layne to thank).

Schwartz is going to bring his hard-nose strategy to the Motor City, but even if they take Jesus himself with the #1 overall pick, there’s almost no chance of them having a season with more than 6-8 wins.

Rebuilding or rebounding?: Rebuilding

St. Louis Rams: 2-14

St. Louis hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2004, but the team has been especially suck-tacular in the last 2 years, amassing just 5 wins. Scott Linehan was sent packing midway through the ‘08 season, and replacement Jim Fassel wasn’t a lot better so the Rams hired Giants D-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to take over, and he’s already put his stamp on the club by releasing multi-Pro Bowl veterans Orlando Pace and Torry Holt. The defense needs serious beefing especially at cornerback and Marc Bulger’s erratic play last year is worrying despite the patchwork O-line he was playing behind. Short of one of the best draft classes yet seen, they’re a long ways from a winning season even if man-beast Steven Jackson rewrites the record books.

Rebuilding or rebounding? Rebuilding

Kansas City Chiefs: 2-14

Pioli needs to get his scheming hat on. And possibly go to SpecSavers.

Pioli needs to get his scheming hat on. And possibly go to SpecSavers.

Another bad team, another overhaul of staff. So far, so normal. However, don’t sleep on the Chiefs in 2009. New GM Scott Pioli knows his football, having crafted the perpetually successful Patriots club that’s won three Super Bowls in the last decade. Much like Bill Parcells in Miami, this is a experienced and savvy executive who’s got a good shot at the one-year turnaround. Cardinals O-coordinator Todd Haley has been given the reigns, and with a solid nucleus on offense with Gonzalez, Johnson, Bowe and now Matt Cassel (and don’t forget Tyler Thigpen’s success under center last year), they could be a handful. Defensively KC added the experience of Mike Vrabel to stabilise a talented front seven which includes DT Glenn Dorsey, DE Tamba Hali and LB Derrick Johnson. Add in their weak division, and KC is the team best geared to rebound this year.

Rebuilding or rebounding: Rebounding

Seattle Seahawks: 4-12

The ‘Hawks were perhaps the most disappointing team in the whole league last year; many people (including us) thought they were a shoe-in for the NFC West divisional crown before the season began, and yet they were the worst team in a bad division. Mike Holmgren retired as expected after the season’s finish, and his previously-named heir Jim Mora Jr. has taken the reigns in Seattle. However, unlike every other team in the worst 5, they’ve had no major front-office turnover.  They’re expected to run the same system as they did previously, and outside of last year they’ve had a good deal of success with it.

The team added high-scrabble-scoring WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh from the Bengals in free agency and traded Julian Peterson to the Lions to get DT Cory Redding, beefing up a position which has been bad for them for some time. The main plus for the ‘Hawks is the health of Matt Hasselbeck because if he’s back to 100% as expected then they have a great chance to bounce straight back to the top of one of the worst divisions in the league.

Rebuilding or rebounding? Rebounding

Cleveland Browns fans: need some coffee to wake up and smell.

Cleveland Browns fans: need some coffee to wake up and smell.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12

The Browns came crashing back to earth in 2008 after a great ‘07 season. The offense took big steps backward with an unreliable receiving corps and uncertainty under center. Romeo Crennel was ousted and replaced with Eric Mangini – whose tenure with the Jets was up-and-down at best – and Phil Savage was also given the boot, with George Kokinis brought in from the Ravens to fill the GM spot.

Player-wise, the Browns traded TE Kellen Winslow to the Buccaneers and picked up free-agents CB Corey Ivy, WR David Patten and OT Floyd ‘Pork Chop’ (your guess is as good as mine) Womack, but none are going to be hugely impactful. The team needs to address its horrible, horrible D and motivate its offense which does have some potential with Braylon Edwards and 2 good QBs in Derek Anderson and Brady ‘I-love-me-some-questionable-photos’ Quinn. There seems to be much room to improve but on the current roster, even with a massively impressive draft Cleveland won’t be winning more than they lose in ‘09.

Rebuilding or rebounding?: Rebuilding

And just because we’re so generous, here’s a quick breakdown of the next 5 worst teams and what we expect of them:

Cincinnati Bengals: Far too many questions on both sides of the ball. Rebuilding

Oakland Raiders: As long as Al Davis continues being himself, they’ll struggle to improve. Rebuilding

Jacksonville Jaguars: A talented core, just need a bit more depth overall and one good WR. Rebounding

Green Bay Packers: Disappointing in ‘08, but Rodgers, Jennings, Hawk, Barnett et al are too good to have another bad year. Rebounding

San Francisco 49ers: Still very uncertain at quarterback and in the NFL this means you’ll struggle to succeed. Rebuilding

And just remember, only 168 days until Kickoff 2009!

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Posted by distantblues

The last chance saloon

March 17, 2009

When Terrell Eldorado Owens was released by Dallas, speculation on his future – mixed with the familiar stench from Jerry Jones lying like Nixon – was rife. Where would the six time Pro Bowler and all time receiving touchdowns runner up land after his third high profile divorce?

Of all the teams in the league who could have been in play for the drama queen’s drama queen (and lots have a need at WR – Giants, Panthers, Bucs, Jaguars, Ravens and Eagles) the idea that T.O. would land in Buffalo would have seemed slightly absurd.

Yet there he is. The way you can tell is that Owens 81 jerseys are already on sale. So at least their newest player and the team have the same approach to commercial decisions.

It’s unlikely they’re going to agree about much else. The Bills are a project team who are seeking to build around young franchise players at QB, RB and WR, and are still a couple of years away from making a run deep into the postseason. Traditionally a spit and bailing wire sort of team, Buffalo is in one of the league’s smallest markets, makes remarkably little money, spends even less, and has little profile.

What are all these cameras doing here?

What are all these cameras doing here?

By comparison, their new No.81 (not to be confused with their old 81, who was pressured into giving up the number) is probably the most “controversial” (read: malcontented) player in the NFL. Although in this day and age he’s by no means the least savoury – he hasn’t shot, run over or dogged any passersby – he is one of the league’s premiere narcissists, seemingly addicted to the cheap fix of seeing his name in the media. The me-first demeanour doesn’t stop at the hashmarks, either, and regular strops about the amount of passes thrown his way have been a feature of his 13 year career.

So if Owens is the kind of man who will dance on the Dallas star, work out in his driveway, wear the worst sunglasses on earth for an on camera blub and even get his own reality show – what the hell is he doing in the back of beyond? With little chance of a deep postseason run in the talented AFC East, and even less of the sort of mainstream media attention he’s become dependent on, Buffalo would seem the worst of all possible worlds for T.O.

It may be that he’s decided to turn over a new leaf, and decided that a plucky, out-of-the-way franchise in need of urgent ticket sales was the place to start the journey of redemption.

It may be that $6.5m buys you a lot more in the backwoods of upstate New York than in a big city.

It may be that mentoring young and wayward players like Marshawn Lynch offers Owens spiritual fulfillment.

Or, simply put, it may be that no one better was interested.

Here at PaP, we have trouble believing that Owens would in a milion years turn down a high profile market, a top tier team with offensive superstars, or a long term deal. The fact that he’s ended up with none of them seems to indicate that most NFL teams aren’t interested in spending big on a serial diva, and they think he’s more trouble than he’s worth.

1 Comment | Offseason | Tagged: | Permalink
Posted by redemigre

Horrible inevitability, or, the Matt Millen draft plan

March 16, 2009

Every year around draft time there’s a shedload of analysis about ‘team needs’ and which positions every squad needs to address. And every year multiple franchises shun solid players in need areas in order to go for a big name rookie. We all remember the regular-as-clockwork Detroit Lions draft strategy, which involved drafting a wide receiver in the first round year upon year – Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, Calvin Johnson – and becoming the worst ever NFL team as a result of idiotic drafting. But alas, the Lions got shot of (and probably considered shooting) Matt Millen, so his gold standard is no longer there for us all to laugh at hysterically. The new Lions front office will probably never draft another first round receiver ever just to offset Millen’s stupidity.

Al Davis: the new gold standard of bad drafting?

Al Davis: the new gold standard for bad drafting?

However, there are a few teams who will take on both the mantle and players they don’t need. The Raiders and Jets have been misfiring for years, and we at PAP salute their continuing ineptitude (drafting Ken O’Brien instead of Dan Marino, Kyle Brady instead of Warren Sapp, drafting a punter in the first round etc.). But, as the Jay Cutler debacle continues to worsen in Denver, it seems that the Broncos could be entering the fray as one of the new examples of front-office retardation.

Hence, we’re going to look ahead to the draft and predict what ridiculous move each of these teams will make in the ‘09 first round, and shake our heads as the inevitable disappointment of draft day looms large.

Oakland Raiders

Need: Offensive linemen, defensive linemen

Will inevitably draft: a wide receiver/running back/anyone with a good 40 time.

Ah, Al Davis: he who abideth by the 40 yard dash. From Warren Wells to Darren McFadden, Davis has always believed that speed kills, but the only thing dying as a result is the Raiders’ win tally. Factor in the numerous free-agent busts they’ve had this year alone (Gibril Wilson, DeAngelo Hall, Javon Walker, Drew Carter) and Davis sets the benchmark for setting a franchise back 5+ years

The Silver and Black are in dire need of O-linemen to protect JaMarcus Russell and D-linemen to sack opposing quarterbacks, but will clearly draft someone who has a great 40 time – probably Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin. It’s hard not to sympathise with Raiders fans as the Black Hole continues to welcome shit-quick players who’ll just end up watching JaMarcus Russell get his head kicked in every week.

The Jets drafted Ken O'Brien instead of Dan Marino in 1983. Criminal.

New York Jets

Need: Wide receiver, quarterback

Will inevitably draft: Someone average instead of a future Hall of Famer

The J-E-T-S have a history of drafting rubbish players over future greats and Hall of Famers, and they either will draft someone who seems like a sensible pick (see: Vernon Gholston) who will end up being a bust, or make a ridiculous first round selection (see: multiple tight ends) which the fans hate. Everything that needs to be said about the Jets’ drafts is in the above link and the following video. There’s just no way to teach this kind of perpetual idiocy (the guy with the ‘tache at the end is my personal favourite):

Denver Broncos

Need: Any quality front-seven player to improve run defense and pass rush.

Will inevitably draft: A quarterback, because Jay Cutler wants out.

It’s amazing that a coach who learned under the reserved, low-risk management of Bill Belichick should make such a total hash of their first off-season in charge. Josh McDaniels inherited a good (potentially great) offense and a Pro Bowl quaterback, but isolated his signal-caller by apparently trying to trade him for Matt Cassel, who ended up in Kansas City. Both sides have handled this situation horribly, but the question remains: why would you EVER EVER EVER EVER try and trade one of the best young quarterbacks in the league for anyone? Franchise QBs are incredibly rare, and Cutler is one of very few that exist in the NFL right now, so McDaniels’ boneheaded decision could hurt Denver severely.

The Broncos’ run defense has been horrible for a few years, and with an above-average offense already in place, this seemed the year to build the D through the draft. However, given that now they appear to be losing their Pro Bowl QB, they’ll need a new man under center in ‘09. The drafting of a new QB wouldn’t be a bad personnel decision, but the fact is Denver shouldn’t have to use a first-rounder on another quarterback when they’ve got a Pro Bowler in house.

However, the only way to see if these teams make the stupid picks we think they will is to watch the NFL Draft on April 25th. Will it be a historic date for your franchise or a day to forget? If you’re a Raiders, Jets or Broncos fan, at this point it looks like being the latter.

3 Comments | Draft | Tagged: , , , , , , | Permalink
Posted by distantblues

The octuple-P draft system: linebackers and safeties

March 9, 2009

In this final edition of the storied PPPPPPPP, we’re going to look at the linebackers and safeties in the 2009 NFL draft. As usual, each group will get its overall grade and then the star of the class will be evaluated using the patented octuple-P draft system, where we’ll compare him to a current or former NFL star to evaluate his eventual effectiveness in the league. As we mentioned in the last edition, defense is usually the foundation of championship teams so clubs will reach for defensive players in positions of need.

Inside LB class strength: B

As more and more teams begin to operate the 3-4 defense, inside linebackers are finding themselves in demand. The ‘08 draft saw only one inside ‘backer taken on the first day (Detroit took Colorado’s Jordon Dizon in round 2, instead of yet another wide receiver), but this year there are two surefire first round MLBs from two of the biggest football colleges in the entire US of A. USC’s Rey Maualuga and THE Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis head the class, with Maualuga likely to go off the board first.

Maualuga: being sued by Troy Polamalu for image rights.

Maualuga: being sued by Troy Polamalu for image rights.

Maualuga was a four year starter in Southern California, playing in 4 bowl games over that span and winning the Chuck Bednarik award (best defensive player in the country) in 2008. He brings tenacity and hard-hitting ferocity to the middle of the field, and makes wide receivers quiver at the thought of running a shallow crossing route. Along with his ability to dish out pain cake, he’s a smart player who played for a pro-style college team at USC, so he comes ready to play. He should be a 10-year starter and a fan favourite for his passionate play and massive hair.

Maualuga’s octuple-P rating: Al Wilson

Behind the mammoth Maualuga and James Laurinaitis, there’s a significant drop-off in talent, especially given that TCU’s Jason Phillips announced this week he has an ACL tear. LSU’s Darry Beckwith and Darnell Ellerbe from Georgia could squeeze into day one aswell, but aside from the two big names, all other inside backers figure to slip into the 3rd round and onwards.

Outside LB class strength: A

There are an increasing number of quality pass-rushers who play defensive end in college and translate into 3-4 outside linebackers: last year we saw only Vernon Gholston (who looks bust-tacular thus far) go in the first round, but in ‘09 the ‘tweener’ class is a lot stronger. Although the best outside linebacker in the draft (Wake Forest’s Aaron Curry) played the position in college, there’s a glut of first-round tweener talent behind him and that earns this group an ‘A’ grade.

Curry: Wake Forest never had it so good.

Curry: Wake Forest never had it so good.

Aaron Curry is probably the best defender in the draft and arguably, the best player overall aswell. Despite not playing for a storied college franchise, Curry is quick, hard-working and intelligent. There’s even been talk of him going #1 to Detroit, but even though he’s unlikely to go top, he will certainly be drafted in the top 5: he’s the safest pick in the draft this year. Curry won the Butkus award as the best linebacker in the country in 2008, and is a hard-hitting playmaker with a complete skill set for the position. He’ll be a high-performer in the NFL who keeps his head down and works his way to becoming one the most respected ‘backers in the league in a long career.

Curry’s octuple-P rating: Keith Bulluck

Behind Curry is a trio of tweeners: Brian Orakpo (Texas), Larry English (Northern Illinois) and Aaron Maybin (Penn State). All of these guys will likely go in the first round along with Curry, but there are also two ex-USC Trojans who are likely to be first round picks in Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews Jr. Probably the best stocked position in the draft outside of offensive tackle, now’s the time to grab outside LBs whether you’re a 3-4 or 4-3 team.

S class strength: D

After hard-hitting, big name safeties have gone in the first round the last few years – LaRon Landry, Brandon Meriweather and Kenny Phillips to name but three – but this year there’s a serious drop-off from previous years. Arguably the thinnest position in the draft this year, the lack of talent serves to explain why guys like Gibril Wilson got paid in free agency although they’re less than stellar.

Delmas, like Antoine Bethea, can one day embody the term solid starter.

Delmas, like Antoine Bethea, can one day embody the term 'solid starter'.

The best player in this weak-as-light-beer class is probably Western Michigan’s Louis Delmas, an aggressive run-stuffer who’s average in man-to-man coverage. He’s a little undersized but has got good playmaking instincts and burst to the ball. He’ll be a early to mid-second round selection and, if he adds some poundage could be a very effective, if unspectacular starter.

Delmas’ octuple-P rating: Antoine Bethea

Delmas aside, the best safeties available are Alabama’s ball-hawk Rashad Johnson, Oregon’s run-stuffer Patrick Chung and the erratic but physically gifted William Moore. A thin class to be sure, but there’s still a modicum of talent to be had at safety in the 2009 NFL draft.

So this brings us to the end of the PPPPPPPP for another season, but not the end of PAP’s pre-draft coverage, so make sure you keep it here for predictions, reactions, retractions and routine bashings of the Redskins’ front office.

Also, if the Titans don’t draft a receiver in the first two rounds AGAIN, expect a tirade from yours truly.

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Posted by distantblues

The octuple-P draft system: Defensive ends and tackles

March 3, 2009

This edition of the fabled octuple-P draft system will focus on the big boys who anchor every defense in the NFL: the defensive line. In the last decade, it’s been proved many times that defenses win championships: the Bucs, Ravens, Steelers (x2) and Patriots (x3) all rode defensive prowess to the Big Dance and walked away with the goods, so plenty of d-linemen will be off the board in the early part of the draft to act as the foundations on which to build championship-calibre defenses.

DE class strength: B

Defensive ends are becoming increasingly high-priced and prized in the NFL, and busts at the position are usually costly (just ask the Redskins) so expect to see plenty go in the early rounds of the draft in 2009. The class gains a ‘B’ grade because there simply isn’t enough quality depth at the position, with probably 4 DEs going off the board in round one. Last year we saw Virginia’s Chris Long lead the pack, and this year there’s a tussle for top spot, but the first pure DE off the board is likely to be Florida State’s Everette Brown, given that Texas’ Brian Orakpo will probably become a linebacker at the NFL level and not a D-end as he was in college.

FSUs Everette Brown could one day terrify people as much as the Raiders #56.

Everette Brown could one day terrify people as much as the Raiders' Derrick Burgess.

Brown is a gifted pass-rusher with a boatload of speed. He may be slightly undersized (256lbs) for the position, but he’s got lots of upside and has the athletic tools to be a great player, and don’t forget that Florida State has a tendency to produce pass-rush studs like ex-Raven Peter Boulware and current Browns OLB Kamerion Wimbley. Brown is raw but gifted, and should go off the board to a team who wants speed coming off the edge. He’ll struggle early on, but as he gets smarter and stronger he has the tools to be a great pass-rushing threat.

Brown’s octuple-P rating: Derrick Burgess

Behind the speedy Brown, there are three first-round talents at the defensive end spot, in Tennessee’s Robert Ayers, LSU’s Tyson Jackson and the inconsistent yet physically freakish Michael Johnson from Georgia Tech (where they must put something in the water to produce specimens like Calvin and Michael Johnson). Behind these there’s a drop-off, but teams will inevitably reach for a defensive end if they need one because pressuring the QB has become priority #1 for a lot of teams.

DT class strength: B

Given that a DT is now the highest-paid defensive player ever (Dan Snyder is the new Al Davis: you heard it here first), there is an increasing premium on disruptive tackles. Add to this the increasing number of 3-4 defenses where a nose tackle is key, and tackles are becoming very sought-after and wealthy. This class has one surefire first rounder in Boston College’s B.J. Raji, and his presence alone makes this class ‘B’ grade quality.

Raji: keeping KFC in business

Raji: keeping KFC in business

Raji was called out at the Senior Bowl by NFL.com’s Mike Mayock, and responded by being absolutely dominant the rest of the week. With motivation, he’s an awesome force, but his main problem is keeping his weight down and motivation up. If he can do that, he’ll make a team very happy. Also, his ability to play both 3-4 nose and 4-3 tackle means he’s got added value as a versatile D-lineman, who are hard to find. When motivated he’s tremendous, but like his PPPPPPPP counterpart, he’s got to prove he can stay consistent and slim.

Raji octuple-P rating: Albert Haynesworth

Raji aside, there’s a good pool of talent at the DT position with Ole Miss’ Peria Jerry leading the trailing pack. He’ll be a late first rounder, and his great Senior Bowl and speed off the line will attract a number of suitors. After him come Evander ‘Ziggy’ Hood (Missouri), Ron Brace (also Boston College) and USC’s mammoth Fili Moala, whose inconsistency has sunk him from a top-10 player this time last year to a probable 2nd-rounder now. However, all of these defensive tackles should all be off the board on the first day.

Hit us back in a day or two for the final (sob!) edition of the Personal Player and Position-specific Playaction Post Prediction and Pick Planner where we’ll look at linebackers and safeties.

1 Comment | Draft | Tagged: , , , , | Permalink
Posted by distantblues

The octuple-P draft system: Offensive Line and TEs

March 1, 2009

After handling what most people call the ’skill positions’ in the two opening editions of the PPPPPPPP, it’s time for the big guys up front who make it all tick. As recent divisional winners know, good offensive line play (see Tennessee, Miami and Baltimore) results in success more often that not. Any team worth its salt plays well in the trenches, and this year there’s a glut of good offensive linemen (mainly tackles) who’ll go high. In addition, there’s an above-average TE class to help in the blocking and receiving games.

OT class strength: A

Remember the 2008 draft when a boatload of tackles went in round one? Well, expect more of the same. Teams seemed to have cottoned on to the Play Action Post draft strategy, so we’ll see lots of offensive tackles off the board on day one of the draft this year.

Up until his unbelievably stupid Combine departure, Alabama’s Andre Smith was the top tackle on most boards. However, since he decided to take a half-day, his namesake Jason Smith (Baylor) appears to have taken his crown and sceptre and, well, laughed all the way to the bank. Most people’s pick to go #2 to the Rams, Smith played in a relatively unsuccessful (read: sucky) college program which ran the dreaded spread offense. Despite playing in a 2-point stance most of his college career, Smith is regarded as a highly athletic prospect with good hustle and has been tagged as one of the ‘10-year starter’ tackles mentioned every other day. Now, personally speaking I think he could well be a bust because playing in the spread at college is leagues away from every-down football in the pro ranks. Add this to the fact he went to Baylor as a tight-end, and this idea is further supported. He’ll either be a phenomenal learner who merits his pick or the next Robert Gallery, so his octuple-P rating lands somewhere between the two.

Smith’s octuple-P rating: Jon Jansen

Aside from the Smiths, there’s a load of other tackles who’ll go in round one, with Eugene Monroe (Virginia), Michael Oher (Ole Miss), Eben Britton (Arizona) and William Beatty (UConn). Expect there to be a whole heap of tackles gone on day one.

Interior OL class strength: D

While there are a lot of quality tackles this year, the inner O-line is a mite thinner, with maybe one player likely to go in the first round. At guard, Oregon State’s Andy Levitre figures to go first while at center there’s a tussle between California’s Alex Mack and Oregon’s Max Unger to claim the top spot. These three guys figure to go in round two, with guards like Kraig Urbik (Wisconsin) and centers like Eric Wood (Louisville) likely to follow soon after. It’s a fairly thin year for the interior offensive ine, and with no real standout single player, there’s no star to evaluate with the PPPPPPPP, so it’s safe to say that if you want an offensive lineman in ‘09, check the free-agent market.

TE class strength: C

Just as in 2008, the tight end class isn’t spectacular. But, unlike last year’s crop, there is a star in the ‘09 tight end group in the form of Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew. His presence alone almost pushes this group into the ‘B’ category, but there isn’t a lot of depth behind him, and no-one but Pettigrew will go in the first round.

Brandon Pettigrew: Highlight reel fodder.

Brandon Pettigrew: Highlight reel fodder.

Pettigrew is a prototype TE at 6′6 and 260lbs, and he brings a great combination of hands and blocking to the table after spending his first 2 years blocking pretty much all day long. He’s got good speed, a lot of athleticism and though his numbers or physicality won’t blow some away like Kellen Winslow II or Vernon Davis have done in recent years, he’s still a top-15 pick with more NFL readiness than any tight end in last year’s class. He’s got the size and speed to be the ‘matchup nightmare’ all offenses crave, and his hands will mean he’s a great safety net for a QB. Whether split out or in-line, the OKState product has got a complete game, and will cause quite a few defensive headaches in his career.

Pettigrew’s octuple-P rating: Dallas Clark

Tune in soon where we’ll wrap up this year’s octuple-P with the defensive line, linebackers and safeties, as well as a hell of a lot more prognostication.

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