2008 Preview: AFC South

August 27, 2008

The AFC South was the toughest division in the NFL last year. No teams had a losing record and the Colts, Titans and Jaguars all advanced to the playoffs. The Texans had a .500 season for the first time in their brief history, and showed a lot of positive signs. Whether or not the division can be as good is a question that remains unanswered, but there’s no doubt that it will once again be competitive and exciting for neutrals and fans alike.

Houston Texans

Prediction: 9-7, 3rd in division

The Texans were a much improved team in ‘07, and were able to record their first non-losing season as a franchise. The addition of Matt Schaub proved to be a savvy decision (especially given what happened to Atlanta after his departure), and one of the youngest defensive units in the NFL began to show consistent production. 2008 should continue to build on a successful ‘07 campaign.

There are 3 reasons why this team didn’t win more than 8 games last year: Matt Schaub’s injury, Andre Johnson’s injury and a terrible running game. Schaub and Johnson were dynamic when they were both on the field, racking up TDs and yards week upon week. Johnson is one of the best receivers in the NFL when healthy, and Schaub is accurate if not spectacular. However, when those 2 weren’t around (despite Sage Rosenfels playing very well) the team couldn’t lean on the run like most teams would if their starting QB was hurt. Ahman Green is very very injury-prone and guys like Ron Dayne and Adimchinobi Echemandu have been released since season’s end.

To try and improve this running game, the team added Chris Brown from the Titans and drafted tackle Duane Brown and ex-West Virginia speedster Steve Slaton. Brown is as brittle as sheet glass, but Slaton could be the guy to emerge in Houston. He was an unstoppable force with the Mountaineers, setting school records and outrunning entire defenses every week. He may be small and relatively light for the position, but he’s had a very good preseason and may just be the missing link in the Texans’ backfield, if D. Brown can help to solidify an iffy O-line.

DeMeco Ryans holds the keys to Houstons defensive success.

DeMeco Ryans holds the keys to Houston's defensive success.

Defensively, Houston will continue to lean on its talented front seven. Mario Williams probably should have been in the Pro Bowl last year, DeMeco Ryans was in it, and Amobi Okoye looks to be adjusting well. Ryans will anchor proceedings again, and the Texans will hope he has another 150+ tackles this year. If Okoye can disrupt inside, expect the giant Williams to have another great year and earn his #1 pick status. If the secondary can up its play even a little, this team could establish themselves for years to come.

If they weren’t in the AFC the Texans would make the playoffs, but they’ll finish 9-7 and beat the Titans on points scored to lift themselves out of last for the first time. If Schaub and Johnson remain healthy, they could do even better.

Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: 12-4, 1st in division

The Colts were defending champs last year, and thus had a few problems: Marvin Harrison, Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney all missed games with injuries and Peyton Manning had to watch Tom Brady break his touchdown record. But they still managed to win the AFC South for the 4th straight year, and look pretty good doing it too.

Expect to see a lot more of this in 08.

Expect to see a lot more of this in '08.

So little has changed for the Colts offensively in the last few years that you can expect the same system and players to return every year until Peyton Manning retires. The offense will use Joseph Addai’s considerable skills to make defenses cheat up, whereupon Manning, Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez and the now-healthy Marvin can terrorise them through the air. Indy brought back Dominic Rhodes to back up Addai, but after Kenton Keith’s emergence don’t expect the ex-Raider to see too many touches.

The Colts will also be much the same defensively, with Sanders and Freeney now returning fully healthy which will be a huge plus. Freeney draws blockers to him which means more one-on-one blocking for Robert Mathis who can also be a dominant force. Sanders’ presence forces teams to throw outside, where corners Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson enter their second season as full-time starters. Expect this unit to finish in the top 10 once more.

Overall, the Colts are essentially the same as they were in ‘07, but Freeney, Harrison and Sanders’ returns to 100% means that they’ll be back to Super Bowl calibre. The Jags have made huge strides, but Indy is still the best team in the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: 11-5, 2nd in division

Tipped by many as this year’s chic Super Bowl team, Jacksonville had a terrific season last year, wherein it found a reliable starting QB, continued its rushing dominance and defensive suffocation and beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. They fell short in the AFC divisional round against the perfect Pats, but looked excellent throughout the season.

After the depature of Fat Albert (sometimes known as Byron Leftwich), David Garrard took over the QB reins and performed admirably, knowing that all he has to do is not give the ball away. He threw just 3 INTs last year which is astounding, and kept drives going (with his legs or his arm) to allow the suddenly evergreen Fred Taylor and Pocket Hercules (Maurice Jones-Drew) to pummel defenses into submission. However, the main problem for the Jags continues to be the WR corps. They acquired Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, but neither has been consistent and the recent arrest of Matt Jones (“no officer, that must be someone else’s cocaine”) means that even if he makes the roster he’ll likely miss time/maybe the whole year. Ernest Wilford left for the Fins and Reggie Williams needs to stop dropping the ball over the middle, but if Porter, Williamson, Jones or Dennis Northcutt can emerge to support the crushing run game, the Jags will be superb this year. However, the Jags’ run-first style of play means that they’ll never outperform the Colts on offense.

Defensively, however, it’s a different story.

Gregg Williams agressive blitz schemes could make the Jags D the leagues finest.

Gregg Williams' agressive blitz schemes could make the Jags' D the league's finest.

The team may have traded Marcus Stroud to Buffalo, but the additions of Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves in the draft mean that as long as John Henderson continues to eat blockers alive in the middle they’ll be plenty of pressure. Mike Peterson will continue to lead the line at middle linebacker, and the dreadlocked tandem of Reggie Nelson and Rashean Mathis (at S and CB respectively) are opportunistic and agressive. All of this plays nicely into the hands of new DC Gregg Williams, who will use this athletic group to utterly dishearten opposing offenses; Williams is the best acquisition this team has made.

In almost any other division the Jags would be the best team by a clear distance. However, in this ultra-tough AFC South they will continue to sit behind the Colts in the regular season because of a lack of threats at receiver. Despite this, they could still make a decent Super Bowl run. Just because they finish behind Indy, doesn’t mean they can’t outperform the Colts in January.

Tennessee Titans

Prediction: 9-7, 4th in division

The Titans’ playoff appearance in ‘07 was baffling to everyone, including the team’s fans. Vince Young suffered from a sophomore slump/Madden Curse combo which meant that he threw almost twice as many picks as TDs. The team was one of the worst passing teams in the league, and it was only the defense that bailed them out of falling below .500.

The Titans’ very poor passing game last year has prompted a few changes offensively, with Justin Gage and Roydell Williams now looking unquestioned as the 2 starters. Jeff Fisher also brought back Mike Heimerdinger as OC to help VY’s progression – Heimerdinger turned Steve McNair into a league MVP, and the T’s hope Young can also profit. However, the Titans’ decision not to pick up a receiver in free agency or in the first 2 rounds of the draft was a bizarre one, especially considering they had the choice of any WR in the draft at pick #19 in round one. The team did add Alge Crumpler as a reliable pass catcher, but the lack of any true deep threats may well hurt Tennessee in ‘08.

Albert Haynesworth is the key cog for the Titans D.

Albert Haynesworth is the key cog for the Titans' D.

However, as is so common with Fisher’s teams, the running game and the D will be the focus of attention. Fisher plays smash-mouth football: run well and stop the run. Hence the team franchise-tagged its best run-stopper (and arguably best player) in Albert Haynesworth, and solidified the RB position by adding the 4.24 speed of East Carolina’s Chris Johnson in the draft. Johnson will be a great change-of-pace back to the 260lb LenDale White, but teams will continue to cram the box whilst Young continues to struggle aerially. Defensively, stalwarts like Haynesworth, Bulluck and Kyle vanden Bosch will return, and the emergence of Courtland Finnegan and Michael Griffin in ‘07 stabilises the secondary.

Ultimately, though, this team goes as far as Young takes them. Whilst I think Young will return to his rookie year form or maybe slightly better, if he plays well then Tennessee could challenge the Jags and Indy atop the division. Young and Fisher know how to win games, but I don’t think the offseason has improved their scoring ability a whole lot. The Titans will slide to 4th this year unless #10 or A Receiver steps up in a big way.

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Posted by distantblues

In The Closet: Martin Johnson

August 26, 2008

Welcome to In The Closet, our periodic series dedicated to outing American Football fans here in the UK.

The first in our series is England Rugby’s world cup winning captain - and now team manager – Martin Johnson.

Here at P.A.P. we have a suspicion that despite all his success as a back row forward, Johnson would secretly have been happier strapping on pads to play football.

Evidence comes in the form of last year’s Matt Hampson bowl between Leicester Panthers and Loughborough Aces, when Panthers fans were no doubt elated to see the huge figure of Johnson kitted and lining up at defensive end. The Loughborough offensive line were less happy…

Johnson has talked about his love for the game in interviews past, and worked as an analyst for ITV during Super Bowl XLI. He is a 49ers fan - and has even trained with the team - but then no-one’s perfect.

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Posted by redemigre

2008 Preview: AFC West

August 22, 2008

So here we have another division in the AFC where the victor can almost be named before the season begins. the Chargers are likely to use their offensive star power and suffocating defense to retain the crown. But really, it’s the poor quality of the other 3 teams which will ultimately hand the Bolts another division title.

The real question is: can any of the other teams close the gap, and if so, how well?

Denver Broncos

Prediction: 8-8, 2nd in division

The Broncos would seem to have many of the tools needed to be a good NFL team: a young, talented quarterback-wide receiver tandem, depth at RB, 2 superb cornerbacks and a coach who has won Super Bowls. They seemed to spend 2007 looking for answers to this conundrum, and not finding it.

Jay Cutler really started to come out of his shell last season, throwing for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs in just his second pro season. Brandon Marshall cut loose for 102 catches, over 1300 yards and 9 TDs aswell, before injuring himself on a McDonald’s bag/entertainment centre in the offseason. The front office will be hoping either free agent Darrell Jackson or rookie Eddie Royal steps up to perform whilst Marshall serves his 4-game suspension at the start of the year, and indeed after he returns.

However, the problem was that Denver’s running game was not the powerhouse it has usually been. Travis Henry was a big injury-prone disappointment (and not just to his 30 or so kids), and the starter seemed to change weekly. Selvin Young was the leading rusher with just 729 yards, marking the first time Denver hasn’t had a 1,000 rusher in some time. If the fabled zone-blocking scheme that produced Clinton Portis and Terrell Davis has fallen flat, it means big trouble for the Broncs.

Defensively, Denver bizarrely cut ties with leader and excellent MLB Al Wilson before last year, and it cost them. Attempts to force DJ Williams into the middle linebacker position didn’t work, so the team has had to move him back outside and hope someone takes the reins in the middle. The team added Boss Bailey (Champ’s brother) and DeWayne Robertson to bolster the front 7, but they lack any quality on the D-Line outside the surprising Elvis Dumervil, so they’ll hope that Robertson will play better than he did for the Jets, or that ‘07 first-round draft pick Jarvis Moss gets up to speed in a hurry after being injured last year. The hole left by the departure of veteran safety John Lynch to the Patriots would seem to already be filled by Marlon McCree’s arrival from San Diego.

For me, Denver did not do enough to improve much in 2007, and unless they sort out the running game or Cutler turns out to be Christ incarnate, they’ll limp to 2nd in a very weak division.

Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: 4-12, 4th in division

Oh deary dear me. If it wasn’t for the continuing (and you can’t deny, almost impressive) horror show that is Oakland, KC would be the worst team in the division by leaps and bounds. Even the Dolphins would have well beaten these helpless chumps last year. Rotating between 2 mediocre-at-best QBs and losing the focal point (read: entire) offense when Larry Johnson got injured, the Chiefs were terrible last year. Bright spots were Dwayne Bowe’s emergence as a #1 target, Tony Gonzalez becoming the all-time leading TE in NFL history and Jared Allen’s 16.5 sacks (and mullet).

Contrary to most teams, the Chiefs’ biggest offseason move was to trade one of their best players. Jared Allen bid farewell to Missouri (which is where Kansas City actually is, oddly) and landed in Minnesota, who gave up a 1st rounder to get him. Defensively now, the Chiefs are almost totally screwed. Aging cornerback Patrick Surtain is still having to hold down a starting role because no-one seems good enough to oust him, the D-line is made even weaker with Allen’s departure and Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali are very good players but also always quintuple-teamed. Despite this, they somehow managed to have the league’s #5 pass defense last year. Go figure.

Offensively, this team was awful in ‘07. Johnson got injured so everyone simply double teamed Gonzalez and Bowe and let the QBs make the mistakes they are so prone to making. Gonzalez and Bowe still had great years, but unless a QB distinguishes himself, neither of them can have much more success. Since Will Shields and Willie Roaf retired this team has had real trouble doing anything offensively, and though Johnson’s return will bolster the rushing attack, expect to see a lot of 8 man fronts until a QB starts passing at all well.

Despite all this, the team has one good thing to look forward to: its rookie class. I thought Glenn Dorsey was the best player in the draft and the pick they got from the Vikings was used to start rebuilding what was once the best O-line in football by taking Branden Albert. Add to that physical corner Brandon Flowers from VTech and ex-Texas speed freak Jamaal Charles and there’s perhaps a glimmer.

No more than a glimmer, mind. As long as Brodie Croyle tops the depth chart this team will struggle.

Oakland Raiders

Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in division.

Surely it can’t go on much longer? Since getting drubbed by the Bucs in the Super Bowl, the Raiders have been consistently awful. In ‘07 they drafted a QB #1 who showed up to camp overweight and very late, were defensively a nightmare and in the offseason lost Warren Sapp to retirement and signed a running back in round one who many consider overrated. However, ‘08 has the potential to be a lot better for a team without a winning year since 2001.

Now that JaMarcus Russell has been in camp all offseason he can gel with the wide receiving corps: free agents Javon Walker and Drew Carter are both overpaid but serviceable opposite the consistent Ronald Curry. Russell will have the growing pains of any young QB, but his cannon arm means he can make many throws others cannot. If he can be accurate and not try to do too much, he could improve a lot.

Darren McFadden has that electric speed that Al Davis has always loved (see Warren Wells, Marcus Allen, Bo Jackson) but must be used correctly. Hopefully Lane Kiffin will learn from Reggie Bush’s tenure thus far in New Orleans, and use McFadden sporadically to maximise his effect. Justin Fargas (Huggy Bear #2) should see the bulk of carries, though Michael Bush has looked solid in camp and will see some looks aswell. McFadden could either be a superb role player for years, or fade out too fast.

Defensively, the biggest story outside of Sapp’s retirement is the addition of DeAngelo Hall at cornerback. His phenomenal speed and coverage skills mean that he and countdown-conundrum Nnamdi Asomougha should be one of the best CB tandems in the league. The defense will continue to be anchored by Derrick Burgess and Kirk Morrisson who are both solid fixtures when healthy. However, last year’s emerging players – Michael Huff (S), Thomas Howard (OLB) and Tommy Kelly (DT) – and the addition of Hall and Gibril Wilson mean that this will be a much better unit in 2008, with big potential.

The offense must show that it is capable of something, but the D should be solid and the Silver and Black could surprise this year. They should leapfrog Kansas City (it’s very easy to do) and might even challenge Denever if all the new additions can gel. However, still expect them to lose more games than they win, and thus Lane Kiffin will likely be job-hunting at season’s end.

San Diego Chargers

Prediction: 13-3, 1st in division

The Bolts had a great 2007, reaching the AFC Championship where only the then-perfect Pats and an injury to the best player on the team/in the league/possibly ever could stop them. Strolling to another division title, they managed to break their playoff hoodoo by beating the Colts in Indy without LT or Phillip Rivers or Antonio Gates at 100% (go, Darren Sproles, go!). Talent-wise arguably the best in the league, expect the Chargers to do a lot in ‘08.

Very little has changed offensively for the Bolts, and why shouldn’t it? The mid-season addition of Chris Chambers should infuse more life into a passing game that was a disappointing 16th last year, largely due to Gates’ absence. With LT, Rivers and Gates all back to 100%, plus a settled-in Chambers and improving Vincent Jackson, this team has all the tools necessary to be an elite unit. Only 3 meaningful changes have been made: Shane Olivea and Michael Turner are in new cities and Lorenzo Neal retired. The team drafted LSU’s Jacob Hester as Neal’s replacement, and with Darren Sproles and Jeromey Clary already in place at 2nd string running back and right tackle respectively, there should be no issues.

On the defensive side San Diego have returning quality in abundance, with Merriman, Castillo, Jamal Williams, Cromartie and Shaun Phillips all returning. Drayton Florence and Marlon McCree are no longer with the team, but with the drafting of Antoine Cason and Eric Weddle’s emergence last year, they are set at just about every position. Again the team was low in the overall standings in ‘07, only 14th in total D, but expect them to move sharply northward in that category.

Barring injuries on a par with last year’s, expect the Chargers to win the division and make a serious run at the Super Bowl. They certainly don’t lack the talent to win it.

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Posted by distantblues

2008 Preview: NFC West

August 21, 2008

In sharp contrast to the NFC East, one of the most competitive divisions in football, the NFC West threatens to again be one of the dullest.

Unlike the AFC East where the predictable dominance of one team (New England) is enlivened by the team in question being a very watchable offensive juggernaut, sitting through a whole NFC West season only for the Seahawks to win the division at a canter (before being knocked out at Divisional Weekend) is a bit like watching paint dry. Whilst the rest of the division shows good flashes and is certainly not short of big names with star power, this is still likely to be the weakest division in the weaker conference.

Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in division

It’s always sad to see a team with potential being shafted by a poor front office and inept ownership [see also Chicago / Oakland / Detroit]. The Cardinals have seemingly spent their offseason trying to go from having two great receivers to having one, trying not to think about the possibility of Matt Leinart failing to live up to his paycheck, penny-pinching by refusing to bolster a defense which is patchy at best, and failing to sign a capable backup to over-the-hill RB Edgerrin James. It’s hard to see what’s going well for Arizona this year.

WR Larry Fitzgerald’s contract may well have been written on gold-leaf and lined with diamonds, but it’s a heavy weight for the rest of the team. Fitzgerald was a top-5 receiver in 2007, which is remarkable given the lack of a first rate QB, and its understandable that the team would bend over for a receiver who personally contributed as many yards as the entire rushing attack last year. If he was in New England, Fitzgerald may well have taken less money in order to stay on a winning team, but given that there’s about as much chance of Gary Glitter winning the X-Factor as there is of Arizona playing in January, he decided to rob the proverbial bank.

His (somewhat) understandable reluctance to take less than market value has on the other hand crippled the side in cap terms, and in doing so made it virtually certain that fellow elite WR Anquan Boldin would depart. Defenses who worried about the Cards’ 1-2 punch at receiver will be a lot happier now that Early Doucet looks like being the #2 guy.

All that needs to be said about Arizona’s running game is that even though it was fourth from bottom last year, the Cards’ only offseason move was to release their #2 tailback. Either someone has given Edgerrin James some new bionic knees (and ankles, shoulders, arms…) or the team has decided that they might as well stop even trying to rush the ball.

Matt Leinart is – financially – the team’s future at QB and the assumption was that, after last year’s tag team routine between him and veteran Kurt Warner, some consistency would return in 08. Coach Whisenhunt must know that the Cardinals aren’t winning anything this year, and hopefully he’ll use the time to find out if Leinart is the real thing, and if so shape him as a leader. Either way, Arizona’s middle ranking offense is probably going nowhere but down in ‘08, when defensive coordinators start rushing two and putting nine men in coverage on Larry Fitzgerald.

The defense is probably the better unit, though in league terms still resides in the middle of the pack. What limited talent is available – i.e. Karlos Dansby and the secondary – will be statistically flattered by soft-ish games against divisional rivals, but matchups against Dallas and New England (and even second tier teams like Buffalo) will likely not be a lot of fun for Arizonians.

Leinart holds the key for Arizona. Elite quarterbacks in the NFL are generally able to make mediocre receivers look good (Jabar Gaffney/David Patten/et al in New England) and give their team a foundation to build around. Until and unless Leinart is able to provide a lead for a seemingly rudderless team – and the Bidwells are prepared to spend money to put better players around him – that fancy new stadium will continue to be a place where visiting teams come for an easy win.

San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 4-12, 4th in division

It’s a familiar NFC West story in SF, where a handful of elite players will struggle to make up for the rest of the roster. Patrick Willis is on his way to being possibly the most dominant MLB in the game, and RB Frank Gore must spend his nights wondering how good he could be if he wasn’t on the offense which scored least points and gained least yards in the entire league last year.

Willis is a primeval force, and if his remarkable rookie year is anything to go by his potential could be almost limitless. The 49ers 3-4 scheme not withstanding, Coach Mike Nolan would do well to mimic Chicago’s man-free schemes and allow Willis to cause havoc the way Brian Urlacher does running free for the Bears. On D the supporting cast is improving year on year, and whilst Nate Clements may be the most overpaid cornerback of all time, journeyman CB Walt Harris has proved a pleasant (Pro Bowl level) surprise, OLB Manny Lawson is a quality player when healthy, and S Michael Lewis is becoming a bit of a tackle machine in his own right. Beyond this group, however, talent is thin on the ground, and the defence needs to improve its big play and takeaway ability if the 49ers are going to win many games against a tough schedule.

Frank Gore

Frank Gore

Mostly, that’s because the offence isn’t going to win any for them. The 49ers offensive line is one of the worst in football, and it’s only the presence of Gore which stops the running game from setting new low league records. Given that the team’s preseason has been dominated by a QB battle which seemed to be a race to the bottom between not two but three fairly crap quarterbacks, chances are OC Mike Martz’ flamboyant offensive style may not be able to stretch its wings. The possibilities generated by Gore and physical freak TE Vernon Davis must seem endless to Martz, but finding a passable signal caller and keeping him on his feet is probably a big enough challenge right now.

 

 

It’s hard to think of what the 49ers could do to improve their prospects, and chances are 2008 is a bit of a write off. If Nolan and the front office are prepared to swallow team pride and rebuild around Davis, Willis and Gore, they might find a useful model in southern California, where San Diego – another 3-4 team with stars at TE and RB – is reaping the benefits of a long term approach.

Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: 10-6, 1st in division

It’s not the worst phrase in football (that would be either “dog-fighting”, “MRSA” or “Tavaris Jackson throws deep”) but it must be close – the Seahawks are a very boring football team.

It’s a mystery why they’re so tedious: Matt Hasselbeck is a fine (if risk averse) QB, Coach Mike “Big Show” Holmgren is a longtime winner in the NFL, and DE Patrick Kerney and MLB Lofa Tatupu regularly turn opposing linemen into puddles of quivering goo. Watching Seattle remains, however, a prospect which raises no excitement whatsoever amongst the casual football fan, and I suspect among more than a few Seattle fans.

The shockingly rapid demise of formerly-record-setting-now-very-rich-but-useless running back Shaun Alexander has been well documented, and a chart showing how his performance dropoff coincided with the signing of a mammoth new contract is probably pinned up in every NFL front office. This sad story came to a close in the offseason, which saw the bewildering spectacle of Alexander – league MVP two years ago – finally being cut.

Hasselbeck showed last year he’s capable of shouldering more of the load, and is a perennial Pro Bowler despite only ever seeming to have practice-squad cast-offs to throw to. The ‘Hawks have again failed to add a better than average passcatcher to their offense, and it may well be that the absence of a receiving playmaker accounts for their tediousness – it’s hard to get excited about another 7 yard slant to Nate Burleson. The Seahawks fetish for long offensive drives followed by a field goal is probably second only to Atlanta’s in recent years.

Patrick Kerney

Patrick Kerney

Defensively the team’s consistency is more of a benefit, and (Kerney and Tatupu aside) its hard to tell when the starters go off and the backups come on. Players like OLB Julian Peterson, CB Marcus Trufant, DT Brandon Mebane and even Nickelback Jordan Babineaux are predictably efficient (if hardly heart stopping) and spared too much physical punishment during the regular season because they play the 49ers and Cardinals twice. Like the rest of the division, however, their 2008 schedule includes games against elite passing teams, which means their mettle will be properly tested by Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Wes Welker and now Brett Favre.

 

 

The Seahawks will – probably – win the division, earning one of the easiest playoff berths in the league. Coach Holmgren, now in his final year, ought to be gearing the team towards winning one than more playoff game and playing with enough ambition to end with a bang. Chances are, however, that Seattle will play well enough to get to January and then lose an uninspiring game to someone like Carolina.

Future HC Jim Mora is watching from the sidelines, and will be glad he doesn’t have another “Coach Killer” waiting to trip him up the way Michael Vick did in Atlanta. What he will need to work out, however, is where to add a few “opposition killers” to take the NFL’s most soporific team into the top tier.

St Louis Rams

Prediction: 7-9, 2nd in division

The Rams fans spent the entire 2007 season looking forward to its end. While the team went about amassing a truly awful 3-13 record the St Louis faithful could look forward to a high draft pick, stand amazed at RB Steven Jackson (one of the league’s best) and place blame on the injuries which scythed through a once-proud offensive line.

Fast forward to the 2008 preseason and the picture looks not that much better. Even with most of the starting offensive line back in place, highly paid QB Marc Bulger still looks uneasy and opposing blitzers are able to get to him too easily. Jackson’s prolonged holdout has also robbed the unit – a solid set of players including elite WR Torry Holt and underrated TE Randy McMichael –of any chance to gel. The halfback, who is probably more important to his team’s offense than any other back in the league, now only has two weeks to learn new OC Al Saunders’ famously complex offense, and chances are that the Rams will therefore be slow out of the gate.

A very good defensive front, balanced between youthful athleticism and experienced guile, provides reason for optimism, and defensive linemen Glover, Carriker, Little and rookie Chris Long will be looking forward to proving themselves against some of the NFL’s best tailbacks. Supported by MLB Will Witherspoon, the Rams’ front four ought to replicate some of the pocket-collapsing success the Giants’ line-led defense had in 2007.

Once opposing offenses aren’t running up the middle – and assuming they’re able to put enough blocking in front of the quarterback – the Rams will have more trouble. The secondary is notable for its lack of talent and depth, and apart from CB Tye Hill opposing gameplanners will not be unduly concerned about its ability to generate takeaways.

St Louis was only saved from a humiliating bottom-of-the-league placing last year by the utterly awful Miami Dolphins, and potentially could have been well placed to bounce back. Just having Steven Jackson on the field and with one or two decent O-linemen healthy probably guarantees a better record, but the team’s collective loss of confidence, Jackson’s destabilising absence and the likely growing pains of adopting to a new system will stop the Rams getting too far from the bottom of the league.

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Posted by redemigre

Who Dey? Syndric Steptoe

August 21, 2008

Hello and welcome to the inaugural edition of Who Dey?, our weekly look at a player in the NFL you’ve never heard of. Sometimes they will be mentioned for outstanding feats that make them a little bit better known, sometimes for the embarassing blunders that mean that they will likely get cut.

This week’s subject is Cleveland Browns 2nd year wide reciever Syndric Steptoe, who impressed in the Browns’ week 2 preseason game against the Giants. He registered 3 catches for 80 yards and a TD, scored on a short screen play and had a big kickoff return in the absence of Josh Cribbs.

Steptoe attended Bryan High School in Texas, his hometown school, and went on to play at the University of Arizona for 3 years, where he majored in ‘family studies and human development’, apparently.

Whilst playing for the Wildcats, Steptoe became renowned for his blazing speed and punt return skills. He also earned the nickname ‘Magic Shoes’ after he returned a punt 67 yards for a touchdown against Pac-10 rivals Oregon State in 2006, showing his ability to make people miss.

After his senior year, in which he was selected as an all-conference player, he declared eligibility for the NFL and was drafted by the Browns in the 7th round, the 234th player selected, despite SI.com predicting he would go undrafted.

He spent his first season on the Browns’ practice squad, but after this preseason showing, maybe he will see more touches.

Here he is making his acrobatic touchdown catch against the Giants:

And here is he getting lit up during his Arizona days:

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Posted by distantblues

2008 Preview: AFC East

August 18, 2008

The AFC East is a division where only one team’s final position is actually known, that being the Patriots, who are surely heavy favourites to win the division once again.

Last season, the AFC East produced the league’s best regular season team – the aforementioned Patriots – and the worst, the 1-15 Miami Dolphins. After a busy offseason the division will get a lot closer, but it’s a big task for anyone except New England to make the playoffs in the competitive AFC.

Buffalo Bills

Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in division

The Bills were injury-prone in 2007 and it’s a testament to Dick Jauron that they managed a respectable 7-9. They’ve added a number of quality players in free agency and the draft, and this young team has got massive potential for 2008 and beyond.

Marshawn Lynch had a huge rookie year but was under the radar as ‘All Day’ Peterson torched everyone in his way. The bruising back out of Cal is going to be the linchpin (no pun intended) of the offense, but the Bills have done well to improve his supporting cast.

After a turbulent season at quarterback in 2007 the team chose Trent Edwards as their starter over the seriously erratic JP Losman. Lee Evans will once again be the focal point of the passing game, but by drafting Indiana’s rangy 6′6 wideout James Hardy Buffalo has added a redzone threat and someone to alleviate the pressure on Evans, who I expect to have a big year. They’re just a third playmaker away from being an elite unit.

Defensively, 2007 was miraculous for the Bills, who for weeks were without all three starting linebackers and were picking up guys off the street to fill holes. With a now-healthy linebacking corps, this defense could be one of the surprises of this year. The secondary is young and quick, and they added a superb cornerback in Leodis McKelvin in the draft to go with an already excellent rotation. The Bills’ biggest (literally) acquisition in the offseason was former Jags defensive tackle Marcus Stroud. At 6′6 and 340+ pounds, he has the bulk to clog blockers in the middle and allow Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay to rush one-on-one.

Not quite ready for the big time, but one more offensive threat and they will be a team to watch.

Miami Dolphins

Prediction: 4-12, 4th in division

The good thing for the Dolphins is that things can’t really get worse. After finishing 1-15, there has been a mass exodus of players and coaches alike, as Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano put their mark on an ailing franchise.

Offensively, the Dolphins were dire last season after Ronnie Brown injured his ACL, though he was on a terrific pace before he got hurt. He’s back this year, but knee injuries take time to fully heal, so expect the Fins to be cautious with him. Ricky Williams has apparently looked very good in camp, so he could be a serious surprise given his bizarre history. Remember that Sparano was Dallas’ offensive line coach, so expect a solid rushing O.

Parcells has loaded this team with quarterbacks, adding Chad Pennington, Josh McCown and Chad Henne. Pennington will start, and he’s an accurate passer who’ll use short routes to move the chains. Expect Ted Ginn to become the Wes Welker of this offense, turning short grabs into long gains with his blistering pace as Ernest Wilford stretches the field vertically with his 6′4 frame.

On the defensive side, the Big Tuna brought across his 3-4 scheme from his Dallas days and added a number of ex-Cowboys. Jason Ferguson, Keith Davis and Akin Ayodele will all start and use their veteran leadership to replace the lockerroom void left by Jason Taylor’s departure. Without Taylor, the pass-rush will obviously lose a big step, but the team will take at least one year to adjust fully to the complex 3-4 regardless, so it’s not as big a loss as it could be.

It’s a rebuilding year without a doubt, but expect Miami to improve, at least a little bit.

New England Patriots

Prediction: 13-3, 1st in division.

How do get better from here? This is a team that was one incredible play by David Tyree away from being the first perfect squad since the ‘73 Dolphins. However, this season will be a lot tougher.

Tom Brady + Randy Moss = touchdowns. That’s an equation the NFL learned the hard way last year, as the pair romped through defenses and set records thought untouchable. But don’t expect the duo to repeat this feat in 2008, as every team saw how the Giants shut them both down in SB XLII and will look to replicate that brilliant display. However, expect Brady to throw at least 15 TDs to Moss because the sheer athleticism of the former Marshall man is too much for 90% of NFL cornerbacks.

This offense will again be excellent as they retained Brady, Moss and Welker, but the loss of Donte’ Stallworth will hurt as they must find a true starting receiver opposite #81. The Patriots will have to run the ball more and won’t be able to equal their stunning feats of last year, but expect very good things, instead of great ones. However, if Brady gets injured the wheels will totally come off the wagon, so New England must protect their prize posession.

The front seven will remain largely unchanged this year, as the likes of Bruschi, Vrabel, Thomas, Wilfork and Seymour return. Jerod Mayo will see sporadic playing time, but it’ll be tough to unseat anyone as a starter. The big story has been the secondary for the Pats this offseason, as Asante Samuel (Eagles), Randall Gay (Saints) and Eugene Wilson (Bucs) all left. Belichick is the master of replacing almost anyone but the secondary will definitely be worse as new players get used to new roles.

The only way the Pats don’t win the division is an injury to Brady. Still the team to beat in the AFC.

New York Jets

Prediction: 7-9, 3rd in division.

Eric Mangini’s second year in charge was a good deal tougher than his first. But can a hyperactive offseason re-establish this team as a playoff candidate? Personally, I don’t think so.

Brett Favre joined the team amid much controversy and media hoop-la, but at 38 he is clearly not the long-term answer at QB for this team, indicating that the front office believes the Jets can win right now. Favre had a wonderful ‘07, but in the 2 years prior to that he had more interceptions than touchdowns (INTs is also a category in which Favre is the all-time leader), so it’s hard to expect much. By the end of ‘08, I think the J-E-T-S will wish he’d stayed retired.

Aside from the addition of #4, the offense added Alan Faneca, whose presence alongside Nick Mangold and best-name-in-the-NFL D’Brickashaw Ferguson will bolster a running attack led by Thomas Jones, who should have a productive year. At receiver, the lightning-quick Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery will be the main attractions, and rightly so as there are few other options.

Kris Jenkins and Calvin Pace have been added to help the Gang Green get more pressure on the QB, and they should have a positive effect, although let us not forget that Pace wasn’t outstanding in the average NFC West and Jenkins has had 2 major knee surgeries. Darelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes anchor a solid secondary which needs to create more turnovers behind a good linebacking group led by last year’s rookie sensation David Harris.

The Jets will be better in 2008, but big name signings do not a good team make.

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Posted by distantblues

2008 preview: NFC East

August 17, 2008

The NFC East is the division most likely to disappoint in 2008.

Much is already expected from the division which a year ago produced three playoff teams – including the eventual Super Bowl champions – and many people are already touting the Cowboys in particular as postseason contenders.

If all goes well, any of the four could be serious players in January, but odds are that only one or two will be able to avoid major injuries and live up to their potential.

Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: 12-4, 1st in division

The Cowboys’ strong 2007 showing and relatively stable offseason in theory puts them at the top of the division, and possibly the conference. Look a little closer, however, and the ‘Boys swagger could be easily punctured.

Firstly, the team has to continue to balance a locker room with more than its fair share of lively personalities. As the Giants proved in ‘07, team unity and discipline goes a long way in the NFL, and Dallas’ habit of piling up brash characters must at some point take a toll on the team’s ability to hang together when the going gets tough.

Dallas’ playmaking offense is also brittle. While Jason Witten is an elite TE, the team only has one real receiving threat in Terrell Owens, and has done nothing to bolster the WR corps in the offseason. An injury to TO would cripple the team’s big play ability, and enable opposing defences to focus even more on Witten. The move from a two-back to a one-back system, centred on Marion Barber, also makes the HB central to the Boys’ ability to move the chains. QB Tony Romo and the team’s bruising offensive line should provide a dependanble core, but there’s only so many first downs Romo can scramble for. Keeping TO, Witten and Barber on the field and on the good end of matchups will be key.

A strong defense should be bolstered by the addition of Pacman Jones. The combination of DeMarcus Ware and an attacking 3-4 style will keep the unit at the top end of the NFC, and limit opponents time and options in the passing game in particular. If the offense can stay healthy – and opposing coaches still can’t work out how to stop Owens- the Cowboys’ preseason confidence will be warranted.

New York Giants

Prediction: 9-7, 3rd in division

The reigning champions are already trying to recapture the underdog status which propelled them to a surprising late season run, mostly by griping about how underrated they are. On paper, though, the Giants have gotten worse in the offseason, and will probably struggle to repeat their success.

The biggest challenge for Tom Coughlin’s team will be that the surprising and innovative elements of the Giants ‘07 style are no longer surprising or innovative. The defence’s pass rush (already weakened by the loss of team leader Michael Strahan) has been broken down in film rooms across the league, and opponents now have more than enough footage of Kevin Boss, Steve Smith and the other upstarts who fuelled the team’s playoff run. HB Brandon Jacobs is also no longer the unknown factor he was a year ago.

Jeremy Shockey is another departee in the offseason, and while no-one in New York will mourn the abscence of his social skills, over the course of a 16/19 game season the sort of one-on-one matchup advantage he gave the team’s inside passing game will be missed.

Defensively Strahan’s abscence immediately removes one of the unit’s most effective playmakers, and a locker room figure who led by example. Like most in the division, the team has an elite linebacking corps, and MLB Antonio Pierce gives the defence a top tier football brain which can keep track of slippery divisional customers like Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis.

The secondary continues to be New York’s achilles heel. If the Strahan-less rush can’t keep opposing quarterbacks on the run, the Giants patchy defensive backs are unlikely to be able to frustrate any competent passing team.

The Giants were the right team in the right place at the right time, and any side who could stop the Patriots’ march to immortality needs to be respected. The trouble with winning is that everyone else starts paying attention to you, and the Giants novelties’ will be run of the mill in 2008.

Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: 9-7, 4th in division

Philadelphia was one of the NFL’s biggest underachievers in 2007. An athletic and experienced secondary coupled with strong inside run defence gives the team a rare and solid base, and the offense includes two of the conference’s best playmakers.

The prescence of Brian Westbrook alone is enough to give the Eagles a shot at the postseason in the NFC, and the aging offensive line still has enough juice to give him running lanes. The Eagles playcalling has consistently kept opponents guessing, and supporting players from Correll Buckhalter to LJ Smith have enough flexibility to keep the offence three-dimensional.

Much like last year, however, the Eagles’ problems reside at the QB position and with the Head Coach. With the best will in the world, Andy Reid’s off-field problems and periodic abscences create instability in the team and organisation, to say nothing of draining the coach’s focus and energies. At a time when the team needs its on field leaders to step up, QB Donovan McNabb is unlikely to be the stabilising force required in 08. Whether because of yet another injury or his insecurities over the prescence of his eventual replacement on the squad, McNabb’s elite talent will likely again be shown in flashes rather than the sustained displays needed to catch a postseason berth.

Many in the Eagles camp will already be looking forward to the next phase, with Kevin Kolb readying himself in the wings and a likely shift in coaching staff within the next year or so. The front office will accordingly soon be considering how to replace long serving veterans like Brian Dawkins and Jon Runyan in preparation for a new era. What Philadelphia has in talent it is likely to lack in focus.


Washington Redskins

Prediction: 10-6, 2nd in division

In many ways the Redskins are the division’s most enigmatic prospect. The team’s traditional underachieving ways were overcome last year and a unique team bond created by the extraordinary circumstances around the death of Sean Taylor.

With his customary disregard for soft emotional or psychological stuff, owner Daniel Snyder swiftly shattered the team’s rapport with an offseason coaching overhaul which was as crude as it was weird. The upshot of all the changes and a suprisingly restrained draft is that he now has a pass-first approach and offensive depth to bring some sexier playmaking to DC.

The ‘Skins 07 weaknesses have partly been addressed – Jason Campbell is fast developing into a dangerous QB, and in new coach Jim Zorn’s offence seems to be able to spread the ball to any of 5-6 receiving threats. On defense, the acquisition of Jason Taylor is a massive upgrade at DE, and though the loss of Sean Taylor leaves a big hole the unit will likely continue to improve year on year.

Washington is, broadly, capable of anything. Optimists can point to proved threats like RB Clinton Portis and TE Chris Cooley, areas of strength like the linebacking corps and the return of Campbell from injury. Pessimists can question whether rookie HC Zorn can settle the offense into a new system quickly, whether Snyder can keep his meddling fingers out of the biscuit tin, and whether the offensive line can stay healthier than it did a year ago, when injuries wrecked the first half of the season. 11-5 is not out of the question, but then neither is 5-11…

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Posted by redemigre